McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

887
FXUS63 KGLD 242156
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the
  work week.

- There is a low chance for a severe storm or two Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are
  the main threats.

- Tuesday`s forecast has sustained winds around 30-40 mph for Eastern
  Colorado. As well as 40% confidence for localized blowing
  dust that could reduce visibility down to a mile.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Today, a shortwave trough dipping into a zonal flow caused by a
high over the southern CONUS will allow some weak showers
throughout the midday and storms to fire this afternoon. As
that`s happening, temperatures will be able to warm to around 90
today. This will drive RH values in eastern Colorado into the
mid teens as winds gust in the 20-30 kts range. We are expecting
briefly critical fire weather conditions, but there is only 50%
confidence Red Flag criteria will be met.

As far as the storms, we`re expecting a dryline to set up around a
line from Norton to Tribune, KS and a weak cold front moving in from
the northwest. Once these two boundaries near each other, storms
will fire off the dryline. A broken line of storms is expected to
convect in the 20-23Z time frame before moving to the east. Hazards
from these storms would be hail up to 1.25 inches, but likely closer
to nickel sized, and wind gusts of 40-60 MPH, the stronger of which
may lead to some localized blowing dust. The severe threat looks to
end around 1Z with remaining precipitation exiting by 3Z.

Tonight, the cold front looks to stall out over the CWA, diffusing
as the night progresses. Temperatures are forecast to cool 50s to
low 60s, being kept slightly warmer by lingering cloud cover.

Tomorrow, a 500mb low pushes over the Four Corners region, allowing
a low disturbance to form in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow
an 850mb Colorado low to form, promoting another round of storms
tomorrow afternoon. These storms look to largely remain west of KS
27, focusing on eastern Colorado. Storms look to start forming
around 20-22Z tomorrow, lasting until around 5-7Z. There is more
CAPE but less shear with these storms, suggesting the hail threat is
less, but the threat of a microburst is slightly higher. With that,
winds up to 60 MPH would be possible, which could once again cause
localized blowing dust.

Tomorrow night, as the lows from the west get closer, southerly flow
looks to strengthen, with overnight gusts remaining around the 20 kts
mark. This will work to keep overnight temperatures very similar to
the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

For Tuesday, the upper air pattern has a ridge set up over the area.
This will bring warmer temperatures and more moisture. The Highs
will be in the 80s. Norton and Graham Counties look to be in the
high 80s maybe reaching the low 90s. Lows are forecast to be in the
mid to high 50s and low 60s. There are some precipation chances for
the day. There is about 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE that could be available
for the for storm development. Looking at Guidance there is still
around a 20-50% chance of seeing more than 0.01" of precipation.

The main concern for Tuesday is the wind. The hazards that may come
with it is localized blowing dust for mainly for Yuma, Cheyenne, and
Kit Carson counties in Colorado. Guidance is showing the sustained
winds to be in the 30-40 mph range. There is still about a 5-10%
chance of seeing the gusts reach up to 55 mph. The main timing for
the winds still are on track to be in the mid morning and late
afternoon/evening hours. The other concern with the winds is blowing
dust. Guidance is suggesting that the blowing dust would be in
localized dust plumes and mixing out creating poor air quality.


For Wednesday through Friday, the upper pattern begins to change.
Currently there is some disagreement with guidance on how a trough
over the west coast will move into the region. Some models suggest
that the trough will deepen and extend farther south over the NM/TX
border, some suggest that will the trough will move through quicker,
and others suggest that it will stall out and cut-off.

The temperatures for the three day stretch are very similar with
highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and a brief warm up on Friday with
the highs in the 80s. Lows stay in the 50s. The winds remain to be
from the south/southeast and relative calm in the 5-20 mph range.
The CAPE values still are in the 1000 J/kg range for any storm
potential.

For this period, there is about a 40-65% chance of exceeding 0.01"
for each day. If the ridge maintains its position then the region
could see high precipitation chances if the southerly flow stays
intact. Guidance is also showing the PWATs in the 0.9 to 1.2" range.
The vertical shear is low which may produce slow storms. There could
be some localized urban flooding if we see precipation over the
three days.

One final note for this period, there is some uncertainty with the
movement of this next system. This will affect the storms/showers
potential. As we continue to move forward, confidence will be higher
on the likely scenario.


Saturday and Sunday, there is a signal of a new system that may
bring precipitation chances. The highs remain in the 80s and lows in
the 50s. The winds look to remain breezy. One reminder, this is
about a week out and this does depend on the how the early system
pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Wind will generally be light and variable
over the first couple of hours of the period, but then become
southerly for the rest of the period. LLWS around 200-400 feet
AGL from the south at 40-45 kts is expected overnight at both
sites, ending around sunrise. Southerly gusts around 20-25 kts
are expected to return tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...CA